Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
